Flooding in NY; Fires in CO

There has been a lot of rain in the eastern US this past week, and it will likely continue into next week.  As a result, flooding is starting to occur in some towns.  I saw these photographs come across Jim Cantore’s Twitter feed and thought I would share them.  They are from towns in upstate New York near, and east of, Utica very close to the New York State Thruway (Interstate 90).  The flooding looks awful in these towns and, unfortunately, we could see more of this in the coming week.

Flooding in Fort Plain, NY courtesy of Whitney Wallace.

Could Cantore Witness Thundersnow #5?

I think it’s on his mind…

Best chances for #thundersnow looks to be late tonight and during the early morning hours for #Boston and southern New England.#MAwx #RIwx

— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) February 8, 2013

Of course, he’s witnessed it with cameras rolling four times before. (At least, by my count.  If there’s more, let me know in the comments.)  The first three occurrences are captured in the video below.

 

The fourth and most recent experience came a couple years ago in central PA.

 

Considering he “just need[ed] a moment” and contemplated entry into the Guinness Book of World Records last time, I’m not sure what his reaction will be if he experiences it with this storm.  Perhaps he’ll just pass out in a snow bank as joy overwhelms him.

The National Weather Service Forecasts 21+ Inches of Snow Over the Atlantic Ocean

Today, it was announced that Dr. Louis Uccellini will take over as the Director of the National Weather Service.  I’ve had the opportunity to see him speak a couple times at conferences.  I hope he will do well in his new role.  Perhaps his first order of business should involve improving how the NWS communicates with the public.  Take, for example, the image above.  It was produced using computer model output and then color shaded to look slightly more fancy.    Much of it is meaningless.

For starters, I can guarantee you there will not be 21+ inches of snow over the open Atlantic waters.  When snow falls into water, it melts because, you see, the water temperature is above freezing.  (Otherwise it wouldn’t be open water. It would be frozen ice.)  Also, nobody lives in the open water, so why inform us of how much hypothetical snow will accumulate in that area?

Last I checked, NOAA and the NWS were organizations in the United States.  No need to let us know how much snow will fall in eastern Canada.  They will get that information from Environment Canada or the Weather Network.

Now, if you cut out that unnecessary information, you can zoom in on where people live in the northeast US and give them a better idea of how much snow to expect.  Of course, you’ll have to get rid of the “BLIZZARD” graphics written right over the top of the heaviest snowfall so that people can actually know what to expect in their backyard.

Finally, I don’t think this is even that accurate, and it contradicts what the NWS local offices are forecasting.  For example, they appear to have a 12″ band in western CT.  However, the Blizzard Warning that is now in effect for that area calls for 18-24 inches of snow.  Now, in my book, there’s a threshold of snow accumulation that, if crossed, it no longer matters exactly how many inches accumulate.  It varies by region, but I would think 12 inches is probably the threshold in New England.  Once you have a foot of snow, the impacts will be so high that any additional accumulation isn’t going to make the impacts any greater.  (Essentially, a foot of snow will shut down most transportation and keep most people inside.  So, how much worse can it get if another foot falls?)  Still, a 6-12 inch difference in forecast snowfall is not insignificant from a scientific standpoint.  It would be nice to see the NWS and their local offices agree on the forecast snowfall, right?

Big Bowl Preview VII

Some may say this is the beginning of the end.  It is true that the BCS is looking at a playoff system beginning in a couple of years, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the end of bowl games altogether.  (Of course, given how expensive it is to travel to bowl games, their numbers may begin dwindling.)  I imagine the fans of big time college football programs would still like seeing their team play an extra game against a non-conference opponent, and I’m sure the coaches will love the extra few weeks of practice if for nothing more than preparation for the following year.  So, I don’t plan on this comprehensive, highly-analytical bowl preview being shut down anytime soon.

As always, this is meant to be fun and humorous, but that shouldn’t stop you from using any predictions as your sole source of information for gambling large sums of money.

(All times are eastern standard time.  Rankings reflect the final BCS top-25 standings.)

AccuWeather Trolls Hard with New Winter Outlook

This morning, AccuWeather released what I have to believe is their final Winter outlook.  December 1st is the beginning of meteorological Winter and I don’t think much could change between now and then to affect their outlook.  So how do they headline their final Winter outlook?

SANDY A SIGN OF WINTER TO COME

Really?  A catastrophic, one-in-a-lifetime event is the sign of things to come over the next three months?  I understand what they’re trying to say is they expect a higher-than-normal frequency of coastal storms this Winter.  OK, but Sandy wasn’t just any coastal storm or even strong Nor’easter.  It was an alignment-of-the-stars storm (which might not be the best analogy given it’s 2012).  Let’s hope they have a decent explanation for this headline.

El Niño Watch Discontinued

About 10 days ago, the CPC ended their El Niño watch after conditions declined into the ENSO-neutral category.  Coming out of La Niña last Winter, most forecasts expected El Niño conditions to develop for this year’s Winter.  In fact, El Niño conditions did occur earlier in the Fall, but then the warm temperature anomaly in the central Pacific Ocean associated with El Niño cooled, leading to neutral conditions.  (For reference, the temperature anomaly must be above 0.5 degrees Celsius to meet El Niño conditions.  I believe this is once again the case, but the CPC references the wind field as their reason for why they think ENSO-neutral conditions will be the norm during Winter.)

So, why does this matter?  For starters, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the driving force behind a lot of the large scale patterns around the globe when it is positive or negative.  In neutral conditions, other ocean oscillations become more dominant.  El Niño gets it’s name for the time of year it usually develops and is well-defined – Christmas.  Thus, ENSO conditions usually play a large role in determining weather patterns in the US during Winter.  In other words, those forecasters that like to put out Winter Outlooks/Forecasts usually rely strongly on ENSO conditions to help determine there long-range outlooks.  If ENSO isn’t strong one way or the other, it may make Winter forecasting a problem.

Accuweather plans to update (and I assume finalize) their Winter outlook tomorrow.  NOAA has already issued their Winter Outlook and has updated it in recent days (sort of).  My plan is to share these during the early part of this week, but keep in mind how ENSO-neutral conditions may make forecasting this Winter an issue.

CPC November Outlook

(Yes, this is late.  So, I’ll give you an update on where we stand halfway through the month.)

Here are the temperature (above) and precipitation (below) outlooks from the CPC for the month of November:

November temperature outlook from the CPC.

November precipitation outlook from the CPC.

The basic highlights are warmth in the western half to two-thirds of the US with cooler-than-normal weather in the extreme southeast.  Drier conditions are forecast along the Pacific coast through the desert southwest and into the southern Plains.  Wetter conditions are expected along the US/Canadian border from the Rockies through the western Great Lakes.

Since it’s already November 16, let’s take a look at how these outlooks look through the first 15 full days of the month.  Keep in mind, there are another 15 days remaining and things can change.  First, temperature:

CPC Review: October 2012

Once again, we review how the CPC monthly outlook performed.  We’ll begin by looking at the temperature outlook.  Recall, that on the last day in September, the CPC changed their temperature outlook dramatically, resulting in this:

CPC October Temperature Outlook

Here’s what actually happened:

 

Temperature anomalies for October 2012.

Well, thank goodness they changed at the last minute.  The band of below-normal temperatures should’ve been shifted westward to include all of the Central Plains and front range of the Rockies.  The above normal temperature forecast in the west was too broad and should not have included as much of the Pacific Northwest.  The above normal temperatures in the Northeast were completely missed by the CPC, although they did give “equal chance” for above or below normal temperatures there, so you could argue they weren’t completely wrong.

On to precipitation.  Here’s the original outlook:

CPC October Precipitation Outlook

And here’s what happened:

 

Precipitation anomalies for October 2012.

I have to say, the CPC did a pretty good job with their outlook in the east, especially extending the above normal precipitation back into the Great Lakes.  You could argue they were inaccurate in much of the southeast, but, overall, it’s not that bad considering how tough it is to predict precipitation over an entire month.

The western half of the country is a different story.  The Pacific Northwest experienced above normal precipitation as did southern Nevada and western Arizona.  This completely contradicts the CPC outlook, which had drier conditions from the Pacific Northwest, down the coast and eastward into the desert southwest.

FINAL VERDICT: On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being “Laughably Wrong” and 10 being “Frighteningly Accurate,” I will (subjectively) assign an overall score of 6.5 to the CPC October outlook.  Breaking it down, I gave them an 8 for the temperature outlook (again, thankfully they changed it at the last moment), as it was pretty accurate.  I scored the precipitation outlook a 5 since it was quite accurate in the east and quite inaccurate in the west.

The Snowy Side of Sandy

If you haven’t already, you can find a slew of images and videos from coastal areas all over the internet (Twitter is a great resource, if you’re not using it) and television regarding Sandy’s impact.  It’s incredible and scary at the same time.  Sandy will come ashore in southern New Jersey (perhaps Delaware) in the next few hours and we’ll no doubt see one of the lowest pressure readings on record when it hits land.

Far away from the coast in West Virginia, western Virginia, western North Carolina, and extreme western Maryland, the snow is flying in the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains.  Forecasts predict 2-3 feet of snow will accumulate in the mountains of West Virginia.  This will certainly be a welcome sight for many of the ski resorts as they’ll likely open up a little early this year.  And what a sight it is already:

Snow begins falling in Garrett County, MD. Image from Twitter via user Alan Auglis.

The snowy side isn’t all fun and games.  Two to three feet is no joke, and when it’s combined with high winds, it will certainly lead to power outages for many rural mountainous areas.

But, hey, it’s better than the 40 degrees and rain I’m experiencing right now.

Saturday Morning Sandy Model Roundup

Just a quick post with a variety of model solutions for Sandy’s landfall early next week.  Before getting to the models, let’s look at the latest forecast track from the NHC:

This forecast has Sandy coming ashore very close to Atlantic City, NJ.  Below are model solutions for Sandy’s landfall.  All images are from the extraordinary weather wall at WeatherBell (requires subscription).