Just a quick post with a variety of model solutions for Sandy’s landfall early next week. Before getting to the models, let’s look at the latest forecast track from the NHC:
This forecast has Sandy coming ashore very close to Atlantic City, NJ. Below are model solutions for Sandy’s landfall. All images are from the extraordinary weather wall at WeatherBell (requires subscription).
We begin with the 06Z run of the GFS this morning:
The GFS has a sub-960 mb center coming ashore in northern NJ Monday night, just south of NYC.
Another sub-960 mb low coming ashore in central NJ Monday night.
06Z Navy NOGAPS:
Again, sub-960 mb low coming ashore in central NJ, this time a little earlier during Monday afternoon/evening.
Again, sub-960 mb low coming ashore just west of NYC in northern NJ late afternoon/early evening Monday.
This one is a little different. A sub-950 low coming ashore on the DELMARVA peninsula Monday night. The Euro moves Sandy due west from this point to Washington, DC.
It appears the NHC forecast track is a blend of all these models, with a landfall in southern NJ. Their current intensity forecast has Sandy weakening into a tropical storm before restrengthening into a category one hurricane before landfall. However, looking at that in a vacuum doesn’t do Sandy justice. This is a massive storm, as you can hopefully glean from the above images. The strong wind is not confined to within 50 miles or so of the center. Instead, uniformly strong winds will spread out hundreds of miles on either side of Sandy’s center. This is more representative of a mid-latitude, extratropical cyclone the US would experience during the Winter (except this one’s on steroids).
As a result, it doesn’t appear the National Weather Service and other pertinent divisions of NOAA have a good avenue for warning the public of this storm. The NHC can issue hurricane or tropical storm watches/warnings, but those are confined to coastal areas. The NWS can issue flood and high wind watches inland, but, again, this doesn’t seem to do this storm justice. Depending on the severity of Sandy, we might see changes made to the watch/warning system in the US. Then again, Sandy is probably a 50- or 100-year storm and any changes may not be applicable for another half-century.