(Yes, this is late. So, I’ll give you an update on where we stand halfway through the month.)
Here are the temperature (above) and precipitation (below) outlooks from the CPC for the month of November:
The basic highlights are warmth in the western half to two-thirds of the US with cooler-than-normal weather in the extreme southeast. Drier conditions are forecast along the Pacific coast through the desert southwest and into the southern Plains. Wetter conditions are expected along the US/Canadian border from the Rockies through the western Great Lakes.
Since it’s already November 16, let’s take a look at how these outlooks look through the first 15 full days of the month. Keep in mind, there are another 15 days remaining and things can change. First, temperature:
So far this month, we’ve seen cooler than normal temperatures in the eastern US and extreme northern Plains. Warmer temperatures have resided in the southern Plains. The west has experienced near normal temperatures overall. However, much of the nation is expected to be above normal during Thanksgiving week, so I imagine we’ll see this map “warm up” over the next 10 days. That said, it’s going to take an extended period of temperature well above normal to erase some of the negative temperature anomalies in the east. We’ll have to see just how warm it gets next week and how long it can hang on through the last week of the month.
The outlook for wetter conditions in the northern US doesn’t look too bad so far, except in the western Great Lakes. Outside of the northern Pacific Coast, the area of drier than normal weather doesn’t look too accurate through the first half of the month. The area that stands out is the eastern US where it’s been quite dry through the first half of the month. With no meaningful precipitation forecast for the next week, the dry conditions will only grow in magnitude. Of course, in the aftermath of Sandy, this might be somewhat welcome, provided it doesn’t last too long.