Category Archives: Forecasting

Silly (Prediction) Season is Upon Us Again

Posted on August 18, 2015 by Greg Marvelous

It’s that time of year when the news media gets a free fluff piece to eat 30-60 seconds of air time or throw up a random post on their site to generate clicks/shares, and make it seem like they actually … Continue reading →

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Does AccuWeather Respect the Process?

Posted on October 25, 2013 by Greg Marvelous

Or is this what people want?… (emphasis mine) Though summerlike temperatures kicked off fall in some parts of the United States, winter — with its cold and snow — is quickly following. The season will get off to a slow … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Seasonal Weather, Winter Weather | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

The National Weather Service Forecasts 21+ Inches of Snow Over the Atlantic Ocean

Posted on February 7, 2013 by Greg Marvelous

Today, it was announced that Dr. Louis Uccellini will take over as the Director of the National Weather Service.  I’ve had the opportunity to see him speak a couple times at conferences.  I hope he will do well in his … Continue reading →

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AccuWeather Trolls Hard with New Winter Outlook

Posted on November 19, 2012 by Greg Marvelous

This morning, AccuWeather released what I have to believe is their final Winter outlook.  December 1st is the beginning of meteorological Winter and I don’t think much could change between now and then to affect their outlook.  So how do … Continue reading →

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El Niño Watch Discontinued

Posted on November 18, 2012 by Greg Marvelous

About 10 days ago, the CPC ended their El Niño watch after conditions declined into the ENSO-neutral category.  Coming out of La Niña last Winter, most forecasts expected El Niño conditions to develop for this year’s Winter.  In fact, El … Continue reading →

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CPC November Outlook

Posted on November 16, 2012 by Greg Marvelous

(Yes, this is late.  So, I’ll give you an update on where we stand halfway through the month.) Here are the temperature (above) and precipitation (below) outlooks from the CPC for the month of November: The basic highlights are warmth … Continue reading →

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CPC Review: October 2012

Posted on November 15, 2012 by Greg Marvelous

Once again, we review how the CPC monthly outlook performed.  We’ll begin by looking at the temperature outlook.  Recall, that on the last day in September, the CPC changed their temperature outlook dramatically, resulting in this: Here’s what actually happened: … Continue reading →

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Saturday Morning Sandy Model Roundup

Posted on October 27, 2012 by Greg Marvelous

Just a quick post with a variety of model solutions for Sandy’s landfall early next week.  Before getting to the models, let’s look at the latest forecast track from the NHC: This forecast has Sandy coming ashore very close to … Continue reading →

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The Origin of Frankenstorm: Your Tax Dollars at Work

Posted on October 26, 2012 by Greg Marvelous

If you have yet to hear the name “Frankenstorm” in reference to Sandy and the hybrid cyclone she will become after making landfall, get ready to hear it a lot.  You will no doubt wonder, “Who came up with that … Continue reading →

Posted in Autumn Weather, Forecasting, Humor, Tropical Weather, Winter Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

The Curious Case of Henry Margusity’s Forecast for Sandy

Posted on October 25, 2012 by Greg Marvelous

Henry Margusity is a meteorologist at AccuWeather.com. Like many meteorologists this week, he has been attempting to forecast the evolution of Hurricane Sandy. He also appears to be fighting a battle either with himself or unspecified readers. Everything begins innocently … Continue reading →

Posted in Autumn Weather, Forecasting, Humor, Tropical Weather, Winter Weather | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments