CPC October 2012 Outlook: Change That Tune

Up until today, the Climate Prediction Center’s temperature outlook for October looked quite similar to their September outlook.  Much of the country was projected to have at least a 33% chance of above normal temperatures.  I went to grab the image today since the calendar turns to October tonight and I found something much different:

CPC October Temperature Outlook

You’ll note the “made” date in the lower left: September 30.  So, basically, the CPC decided to update, and dramatically revise, their October temperature outlook at the last minute.  Yesterday, we looked at the upcoming cold air outbreak near the end of this week.  This outlook from the CPC suggests this might not be a quick cold snap, but rather a persistent weather pattern through much of October, at least in the eastern half of the country.  The intermountain west looks to return to the ridging pattern they experienced during much of September.  This will mean not only above normal temperatures, but drier than normal conditions as well.  The CPC is projecting as much in their precipitation outlook:

CPC October Precipitation Outlook

They also project a chance for above normal precipitation in the Great Lakes and all along the East Coast.  Combine this with the temperature outlook, and it would be reasonable to think the CPC is projecting some snow in the Great Lakes this month.  Lake effect snow in October isn’t unheard of, especially in the northern Great Lakes, but it may be coming a little bit ahead of schedule if this pans out.

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