There is still some variation in the forecast tracks of Sandy, but, at this point, it would take every model being wrong for Sandy to not hit the eastern seaboard of the US sometime early next week. The clearest picture of agreement comes from the 20 tracks of the GFS ensemble from this afternoon:
There are no tracks that head out to sea. There is one track that takes a big loop through the Atlantic before hitting Nova Scotia. The remaining tracks (19 of 20) have Sandy making landfall somewhere between Boston and northern Virginia, with many sandwiched between New York City and Philadelphia. The other models are in general agreement with this suite of tracks. The European model, which has forecast a US landfall throughout this week, has Sandy taking a sharp turn west from the Atlantic Ocean into Washington, DC. The operational GFS has Sandy taking a longer trip out over the Atlantic before slamming into New York City. Here is the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:
As you can see, they are in agreement with model forecasts. (And how couldn’t they considering every operational model is showing something like this solution?) Of course, Sandy is a very large storm, stretching over 1000 miles across. Thus, the affects will be felt well away from the center and likely for an extended period of time.
If you live in the mid-Atlantic or New England, now would be a good time to pick up some extra supplies in case you lose power and/or can’t get out of your home for a few days (maybe even a week). There is still plenty of time to prepare and it’s still possible the storm will miss your area, but what’s the harm in preparing? It’s not like non-perishable food, bottled water, and batteries are going bad any time soon.