First Significant Cold and Snow Forecast for Next Week

5-10 day mean temperature anomalies from the GEFS valid October 4-9. Image from WeatherBell.

All forecasts are pointing to a major blast of cold air near the end of next week across much of the central US.  Temperatures will run well below normal.  The map above suggests an average 5-day anomaly of as much as 9 degrees below normal.  Of course, there will likely be a day or two in that stretch where temperatures are more than 10 degrees below normal.

Now, this is still part of the extended forecast and not at a point where we should trust it completely.  That said, this forecast has been present in some similar fashion in each of the past 10 model runs.  (I’ve watched it for a couple of days before deciding to post.)  So, there’s enough confidence in this forecast to post about and follow it for the next few days.

The less-confident portion of this forecast deals with the potential of snowfall.  It does appear temperatures will be cold enough to support snowfall in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest (and definitely in the Canadian Plains).  The question is whether or not the forcing and moisture will be available for any accumulating snowfall.  The models haven’t been as consistent in predicting this over the past couple days, so we’ll need to wait until early next week before determining if any snow will fall (I think this will happen) and how much will accumulate (no confidence about this aspect).  Stay tuned.

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