Two Typhoons to Affect East Asia

Typhoon Tembin off the coast of the Philippines on August 20th.

Typhoon Tembin (Igme in the Philippines) took a toll on the island of Luzon and made its’ way northward through the western Pacific Ocean/Philippine Sea.  It recently turned westward and is headed toward Taiwan (or Chinese Taipei).  It is forecast to make landfall during the day on Thursday (local time in Taiwan) as the equivalent to a strong category one/weak category two on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, Typhoon Bolaven is hot on it’s heels in the western Pacific.  Right now, it is forecast to reach the area near the southern islands of Japan in 5 days time.

Forecast track for Typhoon Bolaven in the western Pacific.

Given how far away Bolaven is from mainland east Asia (and the islands in close proximity to the mainland), the error in the forecast track includes Taiwan.  Obviously, one typhoon strike is bad enough, but two typhoon strikes in less than a week could be devastating, especially when you consider that Bolaven is forecast to be even stronger (category three) than Tembin as it nears this area.

The good news for Taiwan is that both the European and US forecast models take Bolaven north of Taiwan into the East China Sea.  The frightening part of this is that both models intensify Bolaven even more as it turns northward in the East China Sea and moves into the Yellow Sea between China and the Korean peninsula.  Here are the last four runs from the GFS (US) model:

Last four GFS model run solutions for 18Z August 27th. I believe the time difference makes this valid for the early morning of August 28th locally.

Of course, much like the situation with Isaac in the Atlantic, these models are looking well into the future.  We shouldn’t take them too seriously just yet.  That said, it appears there is better agreement from run-to-run as well as between the two models than in the case of the Atlantic storm.  So, maybe it should be taken a little more seriously, but, nonetheless, there is plenty of time to gain a better understanding of the storm’s path and intensity before disaster preparations need to be made.

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