Another Reason for Patience with Isaac Tracks

From the NHC discussion this evening…

SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT ISAAC HAS A BROAD CENTRAL AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH MULTIPLE
VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED.  THE LOWEST PRESSURES ARE IN AN AREA
NEAR GUADELOUPE...WHICH IS USED AS THE CURRENT CENTER SINCE IT HAS
SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE CENTER PREVIOUSLY BEING TRACKED. 
HOWEVER...THE MEAN CENTER IS LIKELY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
ADVISORY POSITION.  SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER POSITION MAY BE
NECESSARY WHEN THE CENTRAL CORE AGAIN CONSOLIDATES.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
DATA SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/19.

 

I can’t give you directions to my house, and an estimated time of arrival, if I don’t know where you are right now.  We really need to wait until Isaac is organized, and the center established, before relying on any forecast track, regardless of how consistent it might be.

By the way, if you’re wondering why Isaac is getting so much attention as a tropical storm that might barely be a hurricane at any one of its’ landfalls, it’s because there has been such a lack of US land-falling hurricanes that meteorologists and the media are jumping at anything they can get.  It’s been over 2,500 days since a major hurricane (category 3-5) made landfall anywhere in the US.  (I added quickly, but I think I’m OK in saying we’ve hit and passed the 2,500 mark on August 22nd.)  This is, of course, a good thing.  Unless you’re in the business of ratings or page views, in which case you may secretly embrace the impending carnage as a ratings boon.  (For the record, this site is not a business, for if it were, it would surely fail.)

For example, following the monstrous 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, The Weather Channel went crazy marketing itself as “The Hurricane Authority” (or something along those lines).  The 2006 Atlantic season promptly went “splat” with only two tropical storms making landfall in the US.  The Weather Channel knows people are most likely to tune in to see Jim Cantore (or someone less notable, but equally as brave) standing near the coastline waiting to be battered by a storm.  Thus, they depend on storms like Isaac for ratings.  And the worse it is, the better the ratings.  Combine this with the current “drought” of US land-falling major hurricanes, and you can expect to hear a lot about Isaac in the coming days.

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