Do You Believe in Unlikelihoods?

Cotton McKnight and Pepper Brooks on ESPN8: The Ocho

Cotton McKnight: “I can’t believe it.”
Pepper Brooks: “It’s just not believable, Cotton.”

Truer words have never been spoken, Pepper.  One big winter storm is memorable.  A second in the same season starts to set records and creates the memories that are passed down through generations.  Three?  I’m not really sure what happens then, but I guess we’re about to find out.

The National Weather Service in the Baltimore/DC area has issued Winter Storm Warnings for much of their region.  In these warnings, they predict 10-20 inches of snow.  This comes on the heels of the 20-30 inches received this past weekend.  The same thing can be said for eastern PA, northern DE, and parts of southern NJ.

Click for larger image.

This is beginning to go from comically-enjoyable to frighteningly-unceasing.  I grew up in Cleveland, OH.  I’ve seen lake-effect snow events last for days and the snow pile up in feet.  Cleveland has a much smaller population than the DC-Baltimore-Philly metropolitan area and, therefore, is better equipped to handle big snow events.  However, the combination of the previous and upcoming storms would cripple any city, regardless of geographic location and size.  I’ve seen some comments about how DC is merely getting a taste of what many Northerners/Midwesterners experience annually.  That is plain false.  Three double-digit snowstorms in one season are not common in any location that isn’t extremely mountainous.  This is bordering on an epic Winter season in the mid-Atlantic.

All the fun begins again tomorrow sometime between Noon and 3PM.  There is more uncertainty with this storm than the previous one, so we’ll need to be watchful of any changes to the forecast.  The past few model runs have been fairly consistent in producing double-digit snows in the area, especially North and East of DC toward Baltimore and Philly.  However, if it slides a little farther North, sleet and rain could mix in, dramatically reducing snowfall totals.  Check back for pictures/updates.

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2 Responses to Do You Believe in Unlikelihoods?

  1. S.P. Gass says:

    Nice blog. Here in the Blue Ridge Mtns of VA (east of Front Royal) we’ve only gotten 1.5″ so far but there are many hours to go…

  2. Becca says:

    It’s like the Atlantic hurricane seasons of 04 and 05 but with snow! Good luck to you guys!

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