Any Below-Normal Temperatures on the Way?

After a record-setting cool and wet October, November has gotten off to a pretty warm start.  And, if it were not for Ida and her remnants moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic, it might be considered a fairly dry start to the month as well.  Is this the calm before the Winter storm or a sign of things to come in an El Nino Winter?

As has been mentioned numerous times on this blog, it’s very difficult to forecast beyond about 5-7 days, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth looking at such forecasts and having some fun.  Paul Yeager discussed the prospect of a Thanksgiving Day winter storm this year more than two weeks in advance of the holiday.  It no longer appears this will come to pass, but there’s a long way to Turkey Day and anything is still possible.

Paul’s post intrigued me in the way a bottle of good champagne sitting in a glass case might look intriguing.  It’s great to look at, but there’s no way I’m buying into it.  Yet, there I was, looking at it each day for the last week or so.  One thing I did notice in the forecast was the consistency in the model to bring colder air into much of the U.S. sometime around the 26th.  The intensity of this cold wave varied, but the model is trying like heck to bring it along.  And, frankly, I’m here to cheer it on.  It’s seems the CPC may be buying in as well:

111509 814temp

Click for larger image.

Well, it’s a start at least.  Both Paul and I will continue to take a look at the Thanksgiving Day forecast in the coming week (as will every other weather-based web site).  So stay tuned.

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