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Oh, the forecast isn’t that scary… or is it?
Temperatures are expected to warm to near-normal from West to East beginning today and continuing through the middle of the work week. Given the cold weather experienced by many in the eastern part of the country this past week, it might feel like summer. A quick look at the calendar will remind everyone that summer is gone and won’t return for quite some time (unless you live in SoCal, AZ, or FL). It’s a matter of enjoying the warm days you have left and waiting for the next rush of cold air. Unfortunately, that may not be far away.
Below is the 6-10 day forecast for temperatures relative to normal. The color shading represents the percent chance of temperatures being above (warm colors) or below (cold colors) normal. Thus, dark blue colors don’t necessarily represent extremely cold temperatures. Rather, they represent strong confidence in below normal temperatures for that area in the 6-10 day forecast period.
Just going by my eyesight, I would judge that about 75% of the lower 48 is forecast to experience below normal temperatures beginning next weekend. And there’s another aspect to next weekend’s forecast that looks similar to this weekend:
Yep… above-normal precipitation in the northeast. So, it looks to be a pretty nice start to the week across most of the country, but next weekend could look a lot like the present (well, maybe no snow in PA). Isn’t it wonderful? Nice weather during the work week and cold/rain over the weekend? Yes… lovely.
If you’re looking for warmer temperatures to follow, don’t look at the 8-14 outlook from the CPC…
Now, of course, there are some disclaimers to keep in mind. These forecasts are looking at conditions one to two weeks out, where forecast models begin to lose their reliability. Also, the probability of above or below normal temps/precip is averaged over a number of days. In other words, this forecast doesn’t necessarily mean that Birmingham, AL will experience below normal temperatures from Oct. 23 through Halloween. Likewise, Maine isn’t expected to experience rain on each day of the forecast. Instead, averaged over the period of days (either 10/23-27 or 10/25-31) below normal temperatures are expected in Alabama and above normal precipitation is expected in Maine.
On the other hand, 60-70% probabilities are pretty confident forecasts.