October Weather Outlook

Now that we’ve wrapped up September, let’s take a look at the CPC forecast for October.  First off, temperatures:

Forecast temperature departure from normal for October 2009

Forecast temperature departure from normal for October 2009

Once again, the Northeast corner of the US is forecast to have above-normal temperatures this month.  That forecast didn’t verify last month, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be right this time around.  I suppose if you forecast the same thing every month, you’ll eventually be right at some point.

Otherwise, Alaska is expected to have above normal temperatures state-wide while portions of the mountain West are forecast to experience below normal temperatures.  It’s difficult to find many monthly or seasonal outlooks from the CPC that actually forecast below normal temperatures these days.  Of course, they don’t make an archive of forecasts easy to find, so I can’t say this with total certainty.  Having glanced at them regularly for the past few years, I feel confident with this assessment.  It’ll be interesting to see if it verifies.  This portion of the country experienced temperatures well above normal last month.

As far as precipitation is concerned…

Forecast precipitation departure from normal for October 2009

Forecast precipitation departure from normal for October 2009

Southern Alaska and the middle of the CONUS are expected to receive above-normal precipitation for the month.  You’ll note the finger of above-normal precipitation extending into the Rockies where are below-normal temps are forecast.  Could be a good start to the ski season at some resorts.

Only the northwest corner of the country, where you would expected rain, is expected to experience below normal precipitation for October.  The eastern portion of the country is really anybody’s guess.  According to the forecast, there are equal chances for above, at, or below normal temperatures and precipitation for the month.

As with September, we’ll check back on these forecasts at the end of the month to see how the CPC performed.  In the next day or two, we’ll check in on the Fall weather outlook posted at the beginning of September to see how it’s holding up so far.

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